METHODOLOGY

Bayesian Network Analysis

Publicly Accessible

Description

Developer/Partners: N/A (N/A)

Relevant Hazard/Threat(s): All hazards

Intent: Take an event that occurred and predict the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor.

A probabilistic graphical model (a type of statistical model) for representing knowledge about an uncertain domain where each node corresponds to a random variable and each edge represents the conditional probability for the corresponding random variables.

Data Parameters

Inputs: Set of variables and their conditional dependencies
Outputs: Probabilistic queries about variables and relationships, inference and learning, decision-making under uncertainty

Caveats

None