Geopolitical Risk Dashboard

Developer/Partners: BlackRock (2022)

Relevant Hazard/Threat(s): Geopolitical risk

Intent: Aims to capture overall market attention to geopolitical risks, as the line chart shows.

The quantitative components of our geopolitical risk dashboard incorporate two different measures of risk: the first based on the market attention to risk events, the second on the market movement related to these events.

Inputs: The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of brokerage reports (via Refinitiv) and financial news stories (Dow Jones News) associated with specific geopolitical risks. Our updated methodology improves upon traditional
Outputs: The dashboard provides a list of top 10 risks by likelihood and includes a description, market attention since 2019, likelihood, and BlackRocks view on the risk. We adjust for whether the sentiment in the text of financial new stories articles is positive or negative, and then assign a score. This score reflects the level of market attention to each risk versus a 5-year history. We assign a heavier weight to brokerage reports than other media sources since we want to measure the market's attention to any particular risk, not the public’s.